PEAK OIL PERSPECTIVE | 2008-03-27
I always try to find historical parallels.
In the 1920s Henry Ford made one of his few unsuccessful investments by losing a huge fortune in trying to develop rubber farms in Brazil he was, in fact, prescient.
In 1942 Japan held all the available rubber-tree growing area. Some movies made in 1942 show people fighting over a tire. What rubber we had was being emergency recycled for military use.
My family used to tell me how BAD the new artificial rubber was back then.
But by 1945 the new tires were better than the old ones.
It is important that we recognize the difference between a really serious problem and The End of Civilization As We Know It.
Looking back, we find the rubber shortage almost amusing. It was NOT amusing at the time. Henry Ford didn't build all those rubber plantations to protect his car production because it was a minor matter.
Peak Oil IS a serious matter. Serious matters like that, as Peak Oil folks point out, is what revolutions are built on.
Simmons may have converted me on that. The day one can't be converted by reasonable argument is the day his mind is dead.
But this does not make the "Oh, God, all is lost! Civilization is DOOMED!" talk sensible.
That's not Simmons. That's the panic wing of Peak Oil.
Tack with the friggin' wind, gang, but don't jump overboard.