2008: SOME HISTORICAL BACKGROUND | 2008-07-05
This is the first presidential election since 1960 in which neither an incumbent president or vice president is running. The last time the Democrats elected a president from outside the Old Confederacy was also 1960. And that is the one election in which all political experts agree Democrats could not have won is they had not Lyndon Johnson of Texas to concentrate on the South.
In 1988 even National Review agreed that Dukakis was hopelessly ahead of Bush, Sr. in the polls. Through all the noise, I predicted Bush would win. I had already seen the Democrats slide in election after election between their high at the convention and defeat in November, always with another Northern liberal.
Please don't tell ME, of all people, that nothing is inevitable in politics. But it is critical both in politics and the stock market to pay attention to the basics in the midst of all the noise and Latest News.
I am just reminding you of some political history.